Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-06 2.552254 3.088054 3.690641 4.415835 5.262025 6.215221 7.367110
2025-04-13 1.745949 2.405181 3.230128 4.327180 5.735244 7.468084 9.746353
2025-04-20 1.369650 2.104575 3.109200 4.557105 6.559741 9.197004 12.890442
2025-04-27 1.094703 1.853962 2.975495 4.707354 7.257871 10.809217 16.043652
2025-05-04 0.918263 1.695683 2.924827 4.938922 8.066552 12.627992 19.638853
2025-05-11 0.735967 1.479699 2.735764 4.913792 8.468371 13.879385 22.520434
2025-05-18 0.571556 1.251500 2.477336 4.723292 8.567561 14.661432 24.747416
2025-05-25 0.440273 1.049728 2.221474 4.485935 8.542091 15.221883 26.652548
2025-06-01 0.363931 0.936987 2.103689 4.466344 8.868041 16.357230 29.540127
2025-06-08 0.307479 0.851809 2.021463 4.495272 9.273338 17.647417 32.767967
2025-06-15 0.257433 0.767677 1.924469 4.477538 9.584129 18.792251 35.826900
2025-06-22 0.201873 0.653805 1.741014 4.254681 9.475631 19.180418 37.601326
2025-06-29 0.169121 0.591064 1.662440 4.245053 9.791685 20.380955 40.936620
2025-07-06 0.140392 0.530582 1.577094 4.207374 10.046614 21.490638 44.196595
2025-07-13 0.129404 0.520022 1.613135 4.449951 10.908114 23.817710 49.854544
2025-07-20 0.115784 0.496774 1.611795 4.603874 11.595222 25.857568 55.108987
2025-07-27 0.106580 0.485502 1.640353 4.833552 12.469518 28.328949 61.338601
2025-08-03 0.090138 0.442503 1.571545 4.809797 12.773726 29.675557 65.481112
2025-08-10 0.071929 0.385075 1.447488 4.623136 12.681624 30.198737 68.036612
2025-08-17 0.056097 0.329559 1.315052 4.390289 12.450052 30.404314 69.960727
2025-08-24 0.047510 0.301535 1.263369 4.371101 12.729514 31.715370 74.203873
2025-08-31 0.041068 0.280518 1.230209 4.399505 13.129009 33.314470 79.135668
2025-09-07 0.034852 0.257402 1.184076 4.382106 13.409567 34.668513 83.632289